Houston Baptist

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	345.0
Current RPI:	345
Expected SOS:	301
Current SOS:	301
Current Record:	3-25
Expected Record:	3-25
Current Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-14
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	295
Expected OOC SOS:	89

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-25	345.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Houston Baptist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	84-55	L	0%
11-18	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	93-88	L	0%
11-19	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	N	109-116	L	0%
11-21	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	A	99-73	L	0%
11-26	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	101-74	L	0%
12-2	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	71-52	W	100%
12-6	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	76-74	L	0%
12-9	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	87-71	L	0%
12-18	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	A	107-62	L	0%
12-20	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	81-48	L	0%
12-28	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	86-68	L	0%
12-30	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	57-64	L	0%
1-6	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	71-72	L	0%
1-10	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	74-82	L	0%
1-13	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	81-68	L	0%
1-17	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	85-69	L	0%
1-20	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	81-86	L	0%
1-24	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	102-86	W	100%
1-27	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	79-69	L	0%
1-31	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	102-82	L	0%
2-7	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	80-100	L	0%
2-10	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	94-67	L	0%
2-14	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	70-77	W	100%
2-17	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	78-86	L	0%
2-21	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	73-87	L	0%
2-24	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	88-79	L	0%
2-28	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	83-71	L	0%
3-3	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	87-92	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Houston Baptist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Houston Baptist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Houston Baptist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Houston Baptist	Slnd	26.27	26.27	10.66	10.66	-20.68	-20.68
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.45	4.45	25.00	25.00	-2.22	-2.22
Lamar	Slnd	4.43	4.43	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.39	4.39	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.33	4.33	57.69	57.69	0.67	0.67
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.32	4.32	26.09	26.09	-2.06	-2.06
Incarnate Word	Slnd	4.32	4.32	9.09	9.09	-3.53	-3.53
New Orleans	Slnd	2.82	2.82	40.74	40.74	-0.52	-0.52
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.77	2.77	79.31	79.31	1.62	1.62
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.70	2.70	62.07	62.07	0.65	0.65
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.70	2.70	48.39	48.39	-0.09	-0.09
Abilene Christian	Slnd	2.67	2.67	42.31	42.31	-0.41	-0.41
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.60	2.60	8.33	8.33	-2.16	-2.16
Texas St.	SB	1.92	1.92	43.33	43.33	-0.26	-0.26
UTSA	CUSA	1.88	1.88	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Belmont	OVC	1.84	1.84	71.88	71.88	0.80	0.80
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.82	1.82	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Detroit	Horz	1.81	1.81	17.24	17.24	-1.19	-1.19
Providence	BE	1.81	1.81	60.61	60.61	0.38	0.38
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.81	1.81	35.48	35.48	-0.53	-0.53
Michigan St.	B10	1.79	1.79	87.50	87.50	1.34	1.34
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.79	1.79	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Saint Peter's	MAAC	1.79	1.79	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.28	0.28	80.65	80.65	0.17	0.17
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.26	0.26	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
UTEP	CUSA	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Baylor	B12	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.15	0.15	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Morehead St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
North Texas	CUSA	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho	BSky	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.04	0.04	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01